Very interesting. What makes you confident that Jenrick is using the ECHR as an electoral tactic in the way you suggest it could be, rather than as a way to obfuscate a lack of political will to reduce immigration?
Well I'd say as he's in the midst of the leadership campaign he'd probably focusing his rhetoric on winning it i.e. to stake out his position on the right of the party and distinguish himself from Kemi. If he was PM and continued to talk about it then I'd say it would be more likely to be obfuscation.
So, there’s the accounting lag you mention in your other post (which I enjoyed, by the way). And there’s also that Statistics Sweden base their figures on full calendar years, so the govt has somewhat jumped the gun here, i.e. critics would say it’s too early to conclude anything about 2024 (but if you look at it instead as a 12 month period, then those figures would appear to validate/support the trend). Last month SD/M/L/CD had a debate article in the largest conservative broadsheet, in which they in fairly woolly terms repeated some of the distinctions between themselves and the comparatively makeshift left-wing coalition. Immigration naturally at the heart of it. So the intention remains firm, but it’s couched in a qualification—’sustainable’—and by that I don’t think net emigration is necessarily the goal. Very, very anecotally, I don’t think there’s a sense among the public that anything has changed, although some reports suggest that more people are prepared to take the cash and leave + fewer see Sweden as a welcoming destination. I think it’s probably too early to say if the trend is long-term, but I don’t have any real reason to suspect it’s not, regardless of who’s in charge after 2026. The current coalition have initiated the ’paradigm shift’, but the Soc Dems recently made clear that any coalition they lead will have to accept integration over immigration. A repeat of what happened in Denmark doesn’t seem too remote a reality.
Earlier this year, Sweden reported net emigration for the first time in more than 50 years. You mentioned Denmark a bit but said less about Sweden. Would be interested in your take on Sweden vis-a-vis the UK. (Granted, there’s some debate over the accuracy of the Swedish government’s figures due to suspicions of creative accounting, but the trend towards net emigration appears undisputed.)
So, there’s the accounting lag you mention in your other post (which I enjoyed, by the way). And there’s also that Statistics Sweden base their figures on full calendar years, so the govt has somewhat jumped the gun here, i.e. critics would say it’s too early to conclude anything about 2024 (but if you look at it instead as a 12 month period, then those figures would appear to validate/support the trend). Last month SD/M/L/CD had a debate article in the largest conservative broadsheet, in which they in fairly woolly terms repeated some of the distinctions between themselves and the comparatively makeshift left-wing coalition. Immigration naturally at the heart of it. So the intention remains firm, but it’s couched in a qualification—’sustainable’—and by that I don’t think net emigration is necessarily the goal. Very, very anecotally, I don’t think there’s a sense among the public that anything has changed, although some media reports suggest that more people are prepared to take the cash and leave + fewer see Sweden as a welcoming destination. I think it’s too early to say if the trend is likely to be long-term, but I don’t have any real reason to suspect it won’t, regardless of who’s in charge after 2026. The current coalition have initiated the ’paradigm shift’, but the Soc Dems recently made clear that any coalition they lead will have to accept integration over immigration. A repeat of what happened in Denmark doesn’t seem too remote a reality.
Interesting, do you think there's no sense among the public that things have changed because they just haven't realised, as things have been done in a 'pantsuit' way? Or the changes aren't actually that significant.
Yes, I think it’s probably too early + concerns about immigration are so closely linked with concerns about integration and law order that it will take a while before any ‘paradigm shift’ becomes felt—but it seems quite important that it does. Sweden’s not yet anti-system, it’s just pro-Swedish model. It’s been said that what happens in France happens in Sweden ten years later, but I can’t remember the source.
Very interesting. What makes you confident that Jenrick is using the ECHR as an electoral tactic in the way you suggest it could be, rather than as a way to obfuscate a lack of political will to reduce immigration?
Well I'd say as he's in the midst of the leadership campaign he'd probably focusing his rhetoric on winning it i.e. to stake out his position on the right of the party and distinguish himself from Kemi. If he was PM and continued to talk about it then I'd say it would be more likely to be obfuscation.
So, there’s the accounting lag you mention in your other post (which I enjoyed, by the way). And there’s also that Statistics Sweden base their figures on full calendar years, so the govt has somewhat jumped the gun here, i.e. critics would say it’s too early to conclude anything about 2024 (but if you look at it instead as a 12 month period, then those figures would appear to validate/support the trend). Last month SD/M/L/CD had a debate article in the largest conservative broadsheet, in which they in fairly woolly terms repeated some of the distinctions between themselves and the comparatively makeshift left-wing coalition. Immigration naturally at the heart of it. So the intention remains firm, but it’s couched in a qualification—’sustainable’—and by that I don’t think net emigration is necessarily the goal. Very, very anecotally, I don’t think there’s a sense among the public that anything has changed, although some reports suggest that more people are prepared to take the cash and leave + fewer see Sweden as a welcoming destination. I think it’s probably too early to say if the trend is long-term, but I don’t have any real reason to suspect it’s not, regardless of who’s in charge after 2026. The current coalition have initiated the ’paradigm shift’, but the Soc Dems recently made clear that any coalition they lead will have to accept integration over immigration. A repeat of what happened in Denmark doesn’t seem too remote a reality.
Earlier this year, Sweden reported net emigration for the first time in more than 50 years. You mentioned Denmark a bit but said less about Sweden. Would be interested in your take on Sweden vis-a-vis the UK. (Granted, there’s some debate over the accuracy of the Swedish government’s figures due to suspicions of creative accounting, but the trend towards net emigration appears undisputed.)
Never mind, just saw you’ve written about this in previous posts!
Yep, interested in your view as a Swede on how real the trend is.
So, there’s the accounting lag you mention in your other post (which I enjoyed, by the way). And there’s also that Statistics Sweden base their figures on full calendar years, so the govt has somewhat jumped the gun here, i.e. critics would say it’s too early to conclude anything about 2024 (but if you look at it instead as a 12 month period, then those figures would appear to validate/support the trend). Last month SD/M/L/CD had a debate article in the largest conservative broadsheet, in which they in fairly woolly terms repeated some of the distinctions between themselves and the comparatively makeshift left-wing coalition. Immigration naturally at the heart of it. So the intention remains firm, but it’s couched in a qualification—’sustainable’—and by that I don’t think net emigration is necessarily the goal. Very, very anecotally, I don’t think there’s a sense among the public that anything has changed, although some media reports suggest that more people are prepared to take the cash and leave + fewer see Sweden as a welcoming destination. I think it’s too early to say if the trend is likely to be long-term, but I don’t have any real reason to suspect it won’t, regardless of who’s in charge after 2026. The current coalition have initiated the ’paradigm shift’, but the Soc Dems recently made clear that any coalition they lead will have to accept integration over immigration. A repeat of what happened in Denmark doesn’t seem too remote a reality.
Interesting, do you think there's no sense among the public that things have changed because they just haven't realised, as things have been done in a 'pantsuit' way? Or the changes aren't actually that significant.
Yes, I think it’s probably too early + concerns about immigration are so closely linked with concerns about integration and law order that it will take a while before any ‘paradigm shift’ becomes felt—but it seems quite important that it does. Sweden’s not yet anti-system, it’s just pro-Swedish model. It’s been said that what happens in France happens in Sweden ten years later, but I can’t remember the source.